Russian folder type phones market

An aim of our work was not to estimate total Russian market volume of mobile terminals (we’ve done it in other research), but to estimate a share of fashion phones and their popularity on the market. Here are only some necessary extracts from the previous work.

According to our estimates, total Russian mobile phone market volume for 2003 was about 7.5 million mobile terminals (only GSM-phones), 6150 thousand were officially delivered and the rest part were the phones of the gray market. So, share of the gray market reduced to 18% in Russia in 2002. The main leaders of the market are the following:

1. Nokia – 1.45 million
2. Siemens – 1.4 million
3. Samsung – 1 million
4. Motorola – 0.8 million
5. SonyEricsson / Alcatel - 0.5/0.5 million

Share of Nokia – the leading company, is only 19.3% of the total market. At the same time, Siemens reduced last-year gap and its market share increased to 18.6%. If you view an official statistics, you can notice a disparity between those data and our figures. It is easily explained. For example, in case of Nokia, Russian deliveries include phones that were shipped not only in Russia, but in al countries of the former USSR, including countries of Middle Asia. Samsung has the third place, its market share is 13%. So, the situation for 2002 didn’t change considerably compared to 2001, probably, this year we’ll have some rearrangements between 5 leaders.

Folder type phones are shipped in Russia by several companies, namely Samsung, LG, Motorola, Maxon, Panasonic. Traditionally Korean manufacturers have the vast majority of offers. For example, to the middle of summer 2002 Samsung shipped about 700 000 phones, 450 000 of them were folder phones. The same proportion remained within all the year; share of folder type phones was 64.2% or in absolute values it was 642.5 thousand. Samsung had the largest sales in this segment. An average price of one folder type phone from Samsung was about 240 USD. Such high price can be explained by successful sales of Samsung SGH-T100, which was the first phone with 16-tones polyphony and color screen, which could show up to 4096 colors. SGH-A100 almost didn’t influence the price forming; its deliveries were stopped in the beginning of the year. SGH-A300 slightly reduced an average price, it was sold till summer and afterwards it had no influence. Sales of other models (SGH-A400, SGH-S100, SGH-A800) also didn't have a considerable influence on the average price. Data of gray phones can be dropped here, they are insignificant.

The other Korean manufacturer, LG, shipped about 450 000 phones in Russia and 60% (270 000 units) were folder phones. An average price was about 250 USD. A higher price is understandable; LG didn’t have cheap models that must’ve been taken out production in 2002. LG doesn’t have a problem with a gray market, because only certified phones are delivered to Russia.

The third player is Motorola. Market share of folder phones of this company is 20% or 160 000 phones. The largest sales (80%) had Motorola v50, which attracted many customers by its cheap price. Other models, namely Motorola v66, Motorola v60(i), Motorola T720 were not in great demand. The problem of gray market is actual for Motorola, and Motorola v50 in particular. According to our estimates, Motorola has one of the largest share of gray market in Russia. If to say about folder type phones it is about 15%. So, let’s sum up official shipments (160 000) and gray ones (24 000), as a result we have 184 000 phones which were sold under this trademark.

Market share of other companies is insignificant, totally about 10000 phones, including both official and gray phones, and even products from Sharp (Sharp GX-10).

Hence, now we can estimate a total Russian folder phones market volume, it was about 1106.5 thousand for 2002. The main leaders are the following:

1. Samsung – 642.5 thousand
2. LG – 270 thousand
3. Motorola – 184 thousand
4. Others – 10 thousand

If to count a share of this kind of phones in total sales, we’ll find that it is about 15% (or, rather 14.75%). Mobile terminals from Samsung and LG have similar ideology and as a result similar users. So, we can conclude that Korean manufacturers have the largest folder phones market share (more than 80%) in Russia.

Next year Korean manufacturers keep the leadership. But the gap would reduce due to shipments of new models from Motorola in the second half 2003 and launching of new folder phones from other manufacturers, such as Nokia, Sendo, Sony Ericsson, Philips. Probably, sales share of folder type phones also increases and folder phones become more popular both in Europe and Russia. We estimate that this segment of Russian market could grow by 10% and the main growth would be in the second half of the current year, when new models from Sendo, Sony Ericsson, Philips would be available. By pessimistic estimations more than 1.2 million folder phones will be sold in 2003. A considerable increase (up to 30%) of this market segment could be in the beginning 2004 due to increased shipments of European manufacturers.

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