Russian market of mobile terminals in the 3Q 2004

Press release, October 18 2004

Statistics: Official shipments of GSM-terminals on the Russian market suggested 6 596.5 thousand terminals, while in the second quarter official shipments suggested 4 949 thousand terminals. The decrease of sales was 33 percent. The grey market shipments suggested 3.5 percent, which is very low of for the Russian market, it may be compared to the results of the previous quarter (4 percent). The sales scale changed for the main five manufacturers as well as their positioning on the market. The value of shipments suggested 702 million Euros.

Samsung took the first place for the supplies of unit shipments, earlier the company was the leader of the market in the supply only in money terms.

The forecast of the market for 2004 was corrected since great sales of the 3Q; official shipments of GSM-terminals will suggest 24-25 million terminals. The forecast for the 4Q describes a situation similar to the one in the 3Q; shipments of GSM-terminals will suggest 6.5 - 7.5 million terminals

Short description of the market situation. Let's consider the 2Q situation. Some negative factors preventing the market from growth may have been observed. A number of factors also told upon the third quarter (inspection certification of models). The shipment arranged the following way:

The first four manufacturers underwent no any changes in the 2Q, and the general supply decreased for each of them. At the same time a gap between Samsung and Motorola got less. That was connected with the refusal from already made orders for Motorola's phones in the beginning of the 2Q by a number of distributors. Samsung didn't have such problems.

Motorola delayed some releases due to the absence of certificates for the models. That told upon the general sales of the company negatively and prevented from supplying maximum devices to the market. At the same time having decreased prices for a number of its most popular products Samsung managed to deliver maximum devices to the market having taken the first place in this term. Distributing companies also kept high demand on Samsung products thinking the sale time was minimal and the margin was maximum for this manufacturer. The majority of the companies predicted fast increase of the market in September and tried to get prepared for it having bought maximum equipment. The absence of that expected increase lead to a decrease of a custom level in the second half of September and October. It's possible to speak about the stabilization of Samsung sales in the 4Q to the level of the 3Q or about their slight growth (5-10 per cent).

Motorola holds rather strong position having a gap of about 400 thousand terminals with Siemens taking the third place in the number of sold terminals. The main struggle between Samsung and Motorola will take place in 2005. Nokia's sales will grow fast in the beginning of 2005. At the moment the company is in a stage of reorganization that is in particular reconsidering of the company politics both in distribution and pricing. Opening of seven regional offices will also tell positively upon the Nokia market share.

Siemens has supplied the maximum possible devices and a lack of low-end solutions could have been felt. Demand for the 65-series devices was low in retail networks and that's explained with high prices and the company's announcement about the software problems in them. Siemens C65 became the best model of the 65-series having the maximum sales in its segment. A gap with Nokia is about 5 thousand terminals and that's impossible to talk about any serious advantage of Siemens. The company will be holding the third place in the Russian terminal market in the nearest future.

Sony Ericsson has strengthened its position in the Russian market. The company lacks hardware for the whole model line and if it didn't the sales level could have exceeded 1 million terminals and get extremely close to Nokia.

From the second echelon Philips steadily shows high results, the company increases an average price of a model having stable sales. Philips takes the second place in this point being inferior to Samsung. Sony Ericsson has the third place in the average model price.

Sales of the 3Q:

The grey market shipments suggested 3.5 percent, which is very low of for the Russian market.

Forecast for the 4Q 2004

The forecast of the market for 2004 was corrected since great sales of the 3Q; official shipments of GSM-terminals will suggest 24-25 million terminals. The forecast for the 4Q describes a situation similar to the one in the 3Q; shipments of GSM-terminals will suggest 6.5 - 7.5 million terminals.

Nokia will get its third place in the terminals shipment in the 4Q. The market will seriously lack low-end and middle class models. Alcatel is probable to have a bit increased sales, but it won't increase its market share. None of the third echelon gamers will manage to increase its market share, they won't get passed the point of 100 thousand terminals.

About Mobile Research Group

The main activity of Mobile Research Group (http://www.mobile-analytics.ru) - is mobile terminals market researches in Russia. The company analyses the competitive situation of all mobile phones manufacturers available on the Russian market, and researches retail and wholesales of mobile terminals. Basing on analyzed statistic data the company makes a forecast of the mobile terminals market development for some period (up to one year). According to concluded partnership agreement once a quarter the company presents a market analysis report, where the most considerable events and their results are marked.

Publishing data contained in this press release without a link to the Mobile Research Group as a source of information is prohibited. We reserve the right to change data published above if any new circumstances or new information earlier unknown to us arise.
© Mobile Research Group, 2004

Eldar Murtazin ([email protected])
Translated by Maria Mitina ([email protected])

Published - 29 October 2004

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